Predicting the future of books is educated guessing at best. But patterns emerge from watching publishing, reading trends, and cultural shifts.

Here’s what we think 2026 will bring to the book world, based on 2025 trends and trajectory.

Publishing Trends

More consolidation, fewer imprints.

The Big Five publishers will continue absorbing or shuttering smaller imprints. Distinct editorial voices will homogenize further.

Small presses will partially fill the gap, publishing riskier literary work that corporate publishers avoid. But they’ll struggle with distribution and visibility.

Backlist mining will increase. Publishers will focus on proven authors and sequels rather than risky debuts. The midlist continues hollowing out.

International rights will matter more. Publishers will prioritize books that travel well across English-language markets (US, UK, Australia, Canada).

Celebrity memoirs and influencer books will remain disproportionate. Publishing chases guaranteed sales over literary merit.

Format Predictions

Physical books: 65-68% of market (down from 72% in 2025)

Ebooks: 23-25% (up slightly)

Audiobooks: 10-12% (continuing growth trajectory)

Print-on-demand will improve in quality and economics, changing backlist strategies for publishers.

Subscription ebook services will grow but remain niche. Most readers still prefer ownership or library borrowing.

Audiobook production costs will decrease as AI narration improves, but human narrators will remain premium offering for literary fiction and memoir.

Genre Predictions

Climate fiction (cli-fi) will grow as climate anxiety increases and publishers recognize the category’s commercial potential.

Pandemic novels will decline. We’ve had our processing period. Readers are ready to move on.

Historical fiction set in 1990s-2000s will increase. The 20-30 year nostalgia cycle makes recent history feel historical.

Fantasy will fragment further into subgenres: romantasy, cozy fantasy, dark fantasy, epic fantasy. Readers have specific preferences.

Literary thriller will continue growing as genre and literary fiction blur. Smart commercial fiction finds wider audiences.

Autofiction will plateau. The trend peaked; readers are getting tired of the form.

Diversity and Representation

First Nations voices in Australian publishing will continue growing. More Indigenous authors, more Indigenous-led presses, more centering of Indigenous stories.

Translation will increase slowly. English-language publishers will remain cautious but slightly more open to international literature.

Disabled authors and disability narratives will gain visibility. Still underrepresented but slowly improving.

Genre diversity will outpace identity diversity in some ways. Romance and fantasy are diversifying faster than literary fiction.

The conversation about whose stories get told will intensify without necessarily translating to massive shifts in publishing demographics.

Technology and Reading

AI-assisted writing tools will create controversy. Some authors will use them; literary purists will object; publishers will struggle with disclosure policies.

E-ink displays will improve, making e-readers more appealing for holdout print readers.

Audiobook production will partially automate, reducing costs but raising questions about narrator jobs and quality.

BookTok will evolve or get replaced by whatever platform Gen Z/Gen Alpha migrate to. But social media book culture is here to stay.

NFTs and blockchain for books will mostly fail. Publishers will experiment; readers will ignore it.

Reading apps and platforms will consolidate. Smaller competitors will get absorbed by Amazon, Apple, and Google ecosystems.

Bookselling Predictions

Independent bookshops: Mostly stable but fragile. A few will close, a few will open. Net change minimal.

Chains will remain steady. Dymocks and QBD in Australia, Barnes & Noble in US—stable but not growing.

Online sales will increase share but not catastrophically for physical retail. The shift is gradual.

Bookshop.org (or Australian equivalent) will grow, providing online option that supports indies.

Amazon will remain dominant for online book sales but won’t completely eliminate competition.

Used book markets will stay healthy. Second-hand books provide affordable access; market isn’t going away.

Library Predictions

Public library budgets will remain constrained. Some systems will struggle; others will maintain service levels.

Ebook lending will increase as libraries invest in digital collections and readers become comfortable with the format.

Library as community space will matter more than library as book warehouse. Programming, events, and third-place functions justify funding.

School libraries will face continued cuts in some regions, affecting childhood literacy and reading access.

Academic libraries will continue shifting toward digital subscriptions and away from physical collections.

Pricing and Economics

Book prices will increase 3-5% due to printing costs, inflation, and publisher margin pressure.

Discounting wars will continue. Retailers will compete on price; publishers will try to maintain cover prices.

Author advances will polarize further. Celebrity authors get bigger deals; everyone else gets less. The middle disappears.

Self-publishing will grow as traditional publishing becomes harder to break into and offers worse terms.

Subscription models will experiment with different pricing and access tiers. Some will succeed; most will fail.

Author Predictions

Zadie Smith will publish something (she’s been quiet; new work is likely)

Sally Rooney probably won’t publish in 2026 (her novels come 3-4 years apart)

Haruki Murakami might publish (he’s on roughly 3-year cycle; due)

Margaret Atwood will publish something (she’s prolific)

Cormac McCarthy posthumous work might appear (estate holdings suggest possibilities)

Stephen King will publish 2-3 books (he always does)

Several major literary authors will announce retirements or significantly slow output (aging cohort)

Controversy Predictions

AI writing will create major controversy when a prominent author is revealed to be using AI assistance.

Book banning will intensify in some regions, creating backlash and free speech debates.

Publisher diversity initiatives will face political attacks in some markets, creating PR crises.

Environmental impact of publishing will get more attention. Print vs. digital debates will include carbon footprint arguments.

Author payment structures will generate conflict as authors push back against declining advances and unfavorable contracts.

Reading Culture

Book clubs will remain popular but might shift more online or hybrid.

Reading challenges will evolve. Goodreads annual challenge will stay popular but face competition from other platforms.

Influencer book recommendations will drive more sales than traditional review media.

Libraries will face existential questions about their role in digital age. Some will reinvent successfully; others will struggle.

Reading as status symbol will increase. People will perform reading on social media more than actually reading.

But also: Genuine reading communities will deepen. The people who actually read will read more thoughtfully and widely.

Australian-Specific Predictions

Australian publishers will struggle with international competition but maintain cultural importance.

Independent bookshops in major cities will mostly survive. Regional bookshops will struggle more.

Australian authors will find growing international audiences but competition from US/UK authors in local market will intensify.

Indigenous publishing will continue growing with more First Nations authors, stories, and publishers.

Local government support for libraries will vary wildly by region and political climate.

Wild Card Predictions

Things that might happen but probably won’t:

• Major publisher bankruptcy or collapse
• Physical book sales increase instead of decline
• Literary fiction suddenly becomes commercially dominant
• BookTok dies completely
• Universal basic income for authors (we wish)
• Reading becomes universally valued cultural activity (hah)

What We’re Watching

Format evolution: How fast does audio grow? Does print stabilize or continue declining?

AI impact: How much does AI change writing, editing, and publishing workflows?

Economic pressures: Recession could devastate book sales; economic growth could boost them.

Political climate: Culture wars affect what gets published and what gets banned.

Climate crisis: Both as subject matter (more cli-fi) and practical impact (supply chains, disasters).

Generational shifts: What happens as Gen Z becomes primary book-buying demographic?

What Won’t Change

People will still read. Format and platform shift but reading endures.

Great books will still get written. Publishing obstacles don’t stop talented writers.

Readers will still seek recommendations from friends, bookshops, and trusted sources.

Libraries will still matter for access and community.

Physical books will still exist even as digital grows.

Book culture will remain vibrant despite predictions of decline.

Our Biggest Prediction

2026 will look a lot like 2025, which looked a lot like 2024.

Book culture changes slowly. The dramatic transformations people predict rarely happen in single years.

Gradual shifts compound: Audiobooks grow 1-2% annually. Print declines 1-2% annually. Over decades this matters. Over one year it’s barely noticeable.

The surprises are specific books, not industry trends. We can predict trends but not which book becomes the unexpected phenomenon.

What We Hope For

Reality doesn’t care what we hope for, but:

• More risk-taking from publishers
• Better pay for authors
• Stronger independent bookshops
• More diverse voices published and read
• Environmental responsibility from publishers
• Accessible formats for all readers
• Library funding increases
• Reduced book banning
• More literary fiction that’s actually good
• Fewer celebrity vanity books
• Poetry getting more attention
• Short story collections finding audiences

We’ll get some of this. Not all of it.

The Honest Summary

2026 will bring:

• Incremental changes, not revolution
• Mix of progress and setbacks
• Great books and terrible books
• Surprises we didn’t predict
• Continuity more than transformation

And that’s fine. Books survive by adapting slowly while maintaining core value.

The predictions are guesses. The only certainty is books will still exist, people will still read, and we’ll still be arguing about what it all means.

See you in 2027 to see which predictions landed and which were completely wrong.

Now stop reading predictions and go read an actual book. That’s the only future that matters.